Macroeconomic conditions, market liquidity and geopolitical factors are significant drivers of investor relations strategy in any year. In 2025, these factors are expected to assume even greater influence as the volatile political environment int the United States and elsewhere affects inflation, monetary and fiscal policy; the popularity of the various asset classes including bonds; passive versus active stock management trends and more. Kurt Funderburg will provide a high-level, generalist's view of the 2025 economic outlook and how it is likely to affect financial markets and your company's stock, based on his vantage point as chief investment officer of Byline Bank’s wealth management group. Kick off the new year with these compelling economic and market insights, along with a delicious lunch and networking with your NIRI Chicago colleagues at Beatrix in the Loop.
11:30 a.m. - Registration
Noon - 1:00 p.m. - Lunch and Program
NIRI Members: Free
All others: $25
Beatrix Loop
155 N. Wacker Drive
Chicago, IL 60606
Speaker
Kurt Funderburg
Senior Vice President & Chief Investment Officer
Byline Bank
Profile
KEY TAKEAWAYS
At one point, many economists predicted a recession in 2024, but the year shaped up to show steady growth in the U.S. while much of the rest of the world was suffering (e.g., Europe). Our free market economy favors astute asset allocation – unlike market distortions found in China –innovation, employment, and productivity gains due in part to the AI-driven tech sector. The U.S. equity markets performed more strongly than bonds, and the U.S. dollar remains strong. This economy continues to show economic inequality, as high-income households are well positioned but lower-income households have spent their pandemic savings and are now more cautious on spending (e.g., buying private label versus name brand products).
Kurt Funderburg’s personal view is that the U.S. economy will have a “soft landing” in 2025, with growth of 2% to 2½%. He doesn’t expect inflation to come down much more, especially if the Federal Reserve waits to act on interest rates until or unless inflation exceeds 3%. He expects one to two cuts in 2025. On a less positive note, Funderburg is concerned about slow labor force growth as Baby Boomers continue to retire, anti-immigrant pressures, tariffs and taxes. The deficit is roughly 6% of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), exacerbated by “reckless borrowing with no real consequences.”
The S&P 500 had a relatively good year in 2024, achieving returns of 23%. However, the picture was less positive in the small-cap market, which has a “quality problem” (e.g., lack of sales and earnings growth) and volatility. Funderburg expects earnings growth of 8% to 9% in 2025.